Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from hogtown.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sat, 11 May 91 01:27:50 -0400 (EDT) Message-ID: Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sat, 11 May 91 01:27:42 -0400 (EDT) Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #522 SPACE Digest Volume 13 : Issue 522 Today's Topics: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 9 May 91 19:34:24 MDT From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:oler@HG.ULeth.CA> (CARY OLER) Subject: SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" --- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW --- May 10 to May 19, 1991 Report Released by the Solar Terrestrial Dispatch P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada T0K 2E0 --------- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL REVIEW FOR 02 MAY TO 09 MAY Solar activity over the past week was low to moderate. Generally moderate activity has been observed since 05 May. The main contributors of activity have been Regions 6615, 6619 and 6621. Region 6615 is by far the largest and most complex region visible. It has maintained a fairly complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. However, flare activity from this region has been rather low. This region has not yet produced a major flare (as of 09 May) and has generally only managed to spawn low-level M-class flares. One of the most significant M-class flares produced by Region 6615 was a long-duration (over 2 hours) class M2.3/1B at a location of S07W22 on 07 May. The flare began at 00:01 UT, peaked at 00:37 UT and ended at 02:30 UT on 07 May. This flare was not associated with any sweeps. However, it is believed responsible for causing the recent increased geomagnetic activity (a light impact was predicted from this flare). Region 6619 also managed to produce an M-class flare and numerous C-class events. This region contains a strong delta configuration and is large, but is not particularly complex. Recent observations suggest there are about 10 spots within this group, with several large spots imbedded within the penumbral mass. It is currently a DKC optical configuration group and has experienced some growth lately, but has not developed a particularly potent configuration (at least, at the present time). Region 6615 is the most threatening region currently visible. Region 6621 has grown substantially since rotating into view this week. It consists of approximately 20 spots encompassed in an EAO optical configuration. The magnetic configuration of this region is bipolar with only a minor amount of complexity apparent. However, it did manage to produce a small class M1.0/SF flare at 16:07 UT on 08 May. Geomagnetic activity became generally quiet to unsettled after 03 May and remained relatively quiet until 09 May, when effects from the long-duration class M2 flare earlier this week is believed to have increased activity to unsettled to active levels. Auroral activity was generally low to not visible from the northerly middle to low latitudes this week. Residual post-storm activity was evident during the early part of the week, until about 03 May. Thereafter, activity declined. High latitudes also experienced localized and isolated periods of moderate activity during part of the week. HF propagation conditions suffered during the early part of the week, due to a weakened ionosphere caused in part by the ionospheric storming which occurred from 28 April to 02 May, and low solar activity. Conditions began to improve somewhat, later in the week as new solar regions rotated into view pushing solar indices higher, and as ionospheric conditions began to return to normal. MUFs and FOTs were depressed throughout much of the week, but began to improve as the week progressed. VHF propagation conditions were generally normal to slightly below normal throughout the week. Some higher latitudes may have experienced enhanced backscatter conditions early in the week during the post-storm residual activity which was evident then, but in general, conditions were not particularly favorable for long-distance communications on the VHF bands. No significant SIDs/SWFs (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances/Short Wave Fades) were observed this week, although a few low-level M-class flares are suspected of having produced minor SIDs/SWFs. SHORT TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST There is a slight risk for a major flare from Region 6615 before it departs from view on 13 May. This region could be capable of spawning a high-level M-class flare or even an X-class flare before it departs. There is an accompanying risk for proton activity if this region should produce a strong flare. High latitudes and polar regions should be aware of the increased risk for PCA activity until 15 or 16 May. By the time Region 6615 rotates out of view near 13 May, Region 6619 will have rotated to a proton-threatening position. However, this region is (at the present time) simpler than Region 6615 and may not pose as great a risk. The Potential Major Flare Warning will likely remain in effect throughout the transit of Region 6619, unless notable decay takes place to remove the potential threat. This week should reveal the peak of solar activity for this solar rotation. The peak 10.7 cm solar flux probably will not exceed 235 for this rotation, which is a fair bit below the last rotation peak of 268 which occurred on 14 and 16 April. No significant major flaring is expected this week, although a few isolated major flares may be possible. Geomagnetic activity should be generally unsettled to quiet. Early in the period (10 May), activity should be slightly enhanced to generally unsettled levels due to the long-duration class M2 flare which occurred earlier this week. However, the effects of this flare should diminish by 11 May. No significant storm periods are forecasted this week, barring major flare activity. But activity is expected to increase late in the week as a coronal hole rotates into a more sensitive position. The activity shouldn't be too significant, although unsettled to active periods are possible over all latitudes beginning on 15 or 16 May. Please note that a risk exists for a minor to possibly major geomagnetic storm between approximately 23 May and 30 May. Models presently forecast a peak in geomagnetic activity approaching major storm levels (planetary A-index of possibly greater than 40) on 26 May. The possible intensity of the storm is almost impossible to determine, although models suggest activity could range from A-indices of 25 to A-indices possibly higher than 60. We currently believe activity will probably remain confined to minor storm levels, although a risk does exist for a major storm near 26 May. Periods of major storming are a likelihood. The duration of the disturbance may be comparable to the event of late April. Enhanced geophysical activity is expected to begin near 23 May and end sometime near 30 or 31 May. A more accurate determination of events will be possible next week and will be included in the STFR report for next week. Auroral activity this week is expected to remain generally low to non-existant over the middle and low latitudes. Northerly middle latitudes should witness periods of low to possibly moderate auroral activity, particularly early in the period. Activity should then diminish somewhat until late in the week when enhanced conditions are possible again near 15 or 16 May. No significant auroral storms are forecasted this week, barring any significant solar activity, although in the second and third weeks (after 22 May) an auroral storm is forecasted which may become visible over lower latitudes during the moonless hours of the early evening. The predicted peak in activity currently estimated for 26 May concides with an approximately 80% illuminated moon. Therefore, lunar phase will again interfere with attempts to view auroral activity. However, good views of auroral activity may be possible from 23 May to 26 May for a few hours after sunset until the moon rises later in the evening. Additional details and forecast refinements will be given in next weeks STFR. HF propagation conditions will be predominantly good throughout the coming week. Some degradation is possible early in the period due to flare-induced geomagnetic and auroral enhancements, although these effects should be relatively short-lived. Some degradation is again likely late in the week due to a coronal hole. The coronal hole is not particularly well- placed at the present time, but may be capable of producing grazing effects. And again, a minor to possibly major ionospheric storm is possible during the forecasted period of minor geomagnetic and auroral storming later in May. Next weeks STFR will elaborate on potential conditions. VHF propagation conditions should be generally normal this week. An increased chance for VHF backscatter conditions will exist over the middle and high latitude regions on 15 through 17 May. An isolated major SID enhancement may be possible in concert with a major solar flare, although the frequency of VHF influencable SIDs is not expected to be very impressive. SUMMARY OF ALL ACTIVE REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR DISK AS OF 09 MAY Region # Location LO Area Class LL Spots Magnetic Type -------- -------- --- ---- ----- -- ----- ------------- 6605 N09W91 036 0180 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 6608 S21W76 021 0150 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 6615 S09W45 350 4920 EKC 13 033 BETA GAMMA DELTA 6619 N30E33 272 3030 DKC 08 010 BETA DELTA 6621 N09E43 262 1050 EAO 11 018 BETA 6622 S27E43 262 0210 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 6623 N04E53 252 0030 BXO 05 005 BETA 6624 S16E69 236 0060 BXO 05 007 BETA 6625 N13E71 234 0270 DAO 07 005 BETA 6626 N22W44 349 0060 CRO 04 004 BETA NOTES: Area is in million square kilometers. Angular extent (LL) and solar longitude (LO) are in degrees. For more information regarding the terminology used above, request the Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms from: "oler@hg.uleth.ca". H-ALPHA PLAGES WITHOUT SPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AS OF 00:00 UT ON 09 MAY REGION LOCATION LO COMMENTS (IF ANY) ------ -------- --- ------------------------------- 6610 S13W84 029 NONE 6611 S05W69 014 6618 N17E17 288 6620 S04W32 337 ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN BETWEEN 09 MAY AND 11 MAY Region Latitude Longitude (Helio.) ------ -------- --------- 6602 S23 196 6593 S11 189 NOTES: For definitions regarding the above, request the "Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms" from "oler@hg.uleth.ca". GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RECENT PLANETARY (GLOBAL) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY Cumulative Geomagnetic Activity History Peak Planetary Geomagnetic Activity during the past 96 hours ____________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | HIGH | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | * | NONE | | ACTIVE | * | * | * | ** ** | NONE | | UNSETTLED |********|********| ****** |********| NONE | | QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE | | VERY QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE | |-------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------| | Geomagnetic Field | Sun. | Mon. | Tue. | Wed. | Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 3-hourly UT intervals | Intensity | |____________________________________________________________________| NOTES: The data above represents preliminary planetary geomagnetic activity. Data from many magnetic observatories around the world are used in constructing the above chart. The first graph line for each day represents geomagnetic activity which occurred between 00 UT and 03 UT. The second graph line represents activity which occurred between 03 UT and 06 UT, etc. For information regarding the interpretation and/or use of these charts, send a request for the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: oler@hg.uleth.ca. PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (10 MAY - 19 MAY) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE | | ACTIVE |** | | | | | | * | * | * | | NONE | | UNSETTLED |***|** | * | * | * |***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70% NOTES: Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS Cumulative Graphical Analysis of Solar Activity ____________________________________________________________ 275| F F = Major Flare(s) | HIGH 264| F *F* | HIGH 253| F FF F * * *F* | HIGH 243| F*FFFFFFF * ***F** | Moderate 232| FF*FFFFFFFF*F F***F*** | Moderate 221|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF *F***F****F *| Moderate 210|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF *F***F****F **| Moderate 200|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF* **F***F****F ***| Moderate 189|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF**F*F*F***** **F***F****F ***| Low 178|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F* ****| Low 167|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F* ****| Low 157|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F** ***********| Low 146|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F*** ***********| Low 135|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F******************| Low 125|**FFF*FFFFFFFF*FF**F*F*F********F***F****F******************| Very Low ------------------------------------------------------------ Cumulative 60 day Solar Activity Record Start Date: March 10, 1991 NOTES: Left-hand column digits represent the 10.7 cm solar radio flux obtained from Ottawa. The right-hand column describes the relative solar activity for that period based on the average number of major and minor flares that can be expected for related solar flux values. Plot lines labeled with the letter "F" represent days where at least one major flare occurred (ie. class M5 or greater flare). GRAPHICAL 20-DAY SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTION Solar Activity _________________________________________________________________ | 227 |**|**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 219 | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 211 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 203 | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 195 | | | | |**|**|**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 187 | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 179 | | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | | 170 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 162 | | | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | 154 | | | | | | | | | | |**|**| | | | | | | | | | 146 | | | | | | | | | | | | |**|**| | | | | | | | 138 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |**|**|**| | |**| | 130 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |**|**| | |-----|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--| |Solar|10|11|12|13|14|15|16|17|18|19|20|21|22|23|24|25|26|27|28|29| |Flux | May | ----------------------------------------------------------------- CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 65% HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (10 MAY - 19 MAY) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | FAIR | |* *|* *|***|***|* *| | | *| *| ------- | POOR |***| * | * | | | * |***|***|** |** | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | |* *|* *|***|***|** | *| *|* *|* *| LEVEL | FAIR |***| * | * | | | *|** |** | * | * | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 65% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | *|***|***|***|***|** | *|* *|***|***| LEVEL | FAIR |** | | | | | *|** | * | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 65% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE High latitudes >= 55 deg. N. | High latitudes >= 55 deg. S. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N. | Middle latitudes >= 35 < 55 deg. S. Low latitudes < 40 deg. N. | Low latitudes < 35 deg. S. POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (10 MAY - 19 MAY) INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS HIGH LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL| * | **|***|***|***| * | * | * | **|***| 40%|*|*|*| | | | | | | | |BELOW NORM|* *|* | | | |* *|* *|* *|* | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% |* *| | | | *|* *|* *|* *|* *| | 40%|*| | | | |*|*|*|*| | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| MIDDLE LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|** | **|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | | | *|* | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * | * | * | * | | | | | | | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*| | | | |*|*|*| | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| LOW LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT | | QUALITY |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * | * | * | * | | | | | | | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% | **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| 20%| | | | | | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| NOTES: These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 220 MHz bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for the HF predictions charts. For more information, request the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "oler@hg.uleth.ca". AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (10 MAY - 19 MAY) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE |***| | | | |***|***|***|***|***| 70% | LOW |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | LOW |***| * | | | | * |***| * | * | * | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: oler@hg.uleth.ca. ** End of Report ** ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V13 #522 *******************